Beyond the Hype: Empirical Evaluation of Cryptocurrency Unicorn Success

Abstract

Thousands of cryptocurrency coins and tokens have been introduced in recent years, with each purporting to offer a unique take on disrupting traditional financial instruments. Most fail to attract significant investment, but some grow quite valuable for at least a short time. This paper focuses on so-called "crypto unicorns'', which reach a market capitalization of at least $1 billion at some point during their lifetimes. 37 coins and 139 tokens have reached unicorn status. However, only 15 coins and 35 tokens retain market capitalizations exceeding $1 billion at end of our study, with 6 coins and 31 tokens falling below $100 million. We empirically examine the factors that influence the relative success or failure of crypto unicorns. Using regression analysis, we find that bitcoin price, the type of service offered by the coin or token, having an ICO and social media activity all affect success.