Prediction of the Water-Conducting Fracture Zone Height Across the Entire Mining Area Based on the Multiple Nonlinear Coordinated Regression Model

Abstract

The water-conducting fracture zone (WCFZ) is a critical geological structure formed by the destruction of overburden during coal mining operations. Accurately predicting the height of the water-conducting fractured zone (HWCFZ) is essential for ensuring safe coal production. Based on more than 150 measured heights of fractured water-conducting zone samples from various mining areas in China, this study investigates the influence of five primary factors on the height: mining thickness, mining depth, length of the panel, coal seam dip, and the proportion coefficient of hard rock. The correlation degrees and relative weights of each factor are determined through grey relational analysis and principal component analysis. All five factors exhibit strong correlations with the height of the fractured water-conducting zone, with correlation degrees exceeding 0.79. Mining thickness is found to have the highest weight (0.256). A multiple nonlinear coordinated regression equation was constructed through regression analysis of the influencing factors. The prediction accuracy was compared with three other predictive models: the multiple nonlinear additive regression model, the BP neural network model, and the GA-BP neural network model. Among these models, the multiple nonlinear coordinated regression model was found to achieve the lowest error rate (7.23%) and the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 87.42%), indicating superior accuracy and reliability. The model’s performance is further validated using drill hole data and numerical simulations at the B-1 drill hole in the Fuda Coal Mine. Predictive results for the entire Fuda Coal Mine area indicate that as the No. 15 coal seam extends northwestward, the height of the fractured water-conducting zone increases from 52.1 m to 73.9 m. These findings have significant implications for improving mine safety and preventing geological hazards in coal mining operations.