Bitcoin Poison? Anecdotal Evidence from Bitcoin Miners Revenue

Abstract

This paper explores the predictive qualities of Bitcoin Miners Revenue on Bitcoin Returns. Using data on Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market from July 1, 2010 to February 20, 2018, we reflect intervariable correlations not previously examined. We analyze those relationships with a conditional regression analysis adjusting for calendar effects. We separate the sample, and use the last 17 trading days (month) to test a strategy based on the probability of Bitcoin Returns moving higher. After a slight modification to the logistic regression analysis, we find a profitable trading strategy exists based solely on Bitcoin Miners Revenue and the probability of Bitcoin Returns moving higher.