Determining Multi-Class Trading Signals for Bitcoin: A Comparative Study of XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest

Abstract

We investigate a multi-class machine learning (ML) framework to generate daily Bitcoin trading signals—Buy, Sell, or Hold. Three algorithms—XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest—are compared with a naive buy-and-hold strategy. Using BTC/USD daily data (2015–2024), we apply a range of technical indicators across trend, momentum, volatility, and volume, later pruned by correlation analysis. A ±1% threshold defines the "Hold" zone to avoid minor fluctuations. Empirical tests show that LightGBM outperforms other models and even surpasses buy-and-hold in final portfolio value. Our findings support the design of tri-class ML strategies tailored for high-volatility markets like cryptocurrency.