Setting the Stochastic Model for Mid-Term Prediction of Cryptocurrency Exchange Rate: The Bitcoin Case

Abstract

Importance The article discusses the process of economic and mathematical modeling of time series describing the volatility of the bitcoin exchange rate through the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. Objectives We search for, and substantiate tools and mechanisms used to predict the cryptocurrency market developments. Methods The research applies tools of stochastic analysis of stationary and non-stationary time series.