The impact of inflation, credit risk and corruption on local bitcoin prices: A panel data analysis

Abstract

This thesis analyzes whether inflation rates, government bonds and corruption levels have an impact on the difference between local prices of bitcoin and prices on the most liquid exchanges globally. Bitcoin may act as a preferred alternative to local currencies in countries with high levels of financial uncertainty, hence people who live in these countries might be willing to pay a premium to purchase bitcoin as they reduce the risk related to the future value of their own fiat currency. Daily average prices on bitcoin, in 15 different fiat currencies, are downloaded from LocalBitcoins and converted to USD at official exchange rates. The data covers the period of Jan.2015-Dec.2017. By calculating daily deviations from the BNC Liquid Index and aggregating to monthly observations, we consider three different panel data models: the static- and dynamic fixed effects and a within-between random effects model. The results suggest that countries with higher average inflation rates has a higher premium, while a within increase in monthly inflation has a negative impact. If the premium on 10Y government bonds increases, the premium increases significantly, but when comparing across countries, the average bond rate is not significant, but positive. A within increase in corruption levels has a positive impact on the premium, but surprisingly we get a negative relationship at country level. Countries with poor economic performance and high levels of uncertainty seems to be willing to pay a premium to acquire Bitcoins