The impact of Bitcoin futures introduction on spot price crash risk

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Bitcoin futures introduction on the crash risk of spot Bitcoin prices. Using both time-series regression with a time dummy and a difference-in-differences (DID) framework, we find that crash risk, proxied by the negative conditional skewness (NCSKEW) and down-to-up volatility (DUVOL) of 5-minute intraday Bitcoin returns, declines significantly after the launch of Bitcoin futures. Robustness checks confirm that the findings are robust to changes in control variables, control cryptocurrencies, the sampling frequency for high-frequency returns, and an extended post-introduction period. Furthermore, we explore the moderating roles of market liquidity and investor attention. The crash-mitigating effect of Bitcoin futures is significantly more pronounced in periods of low liquidity and limited investor attention, suggesting that futures markets play a stronger role in enhancing information efficiency under such conditions.HighlightsThis paper examines whether Bitcoin futures introduction increases or decreases Bitcoin price crash risk.The price crash risk of Bitcoin, measured by NCSKEW and DUVOL from high-frequency intraday data, decreases significantly after futures introduction.The main findings are robust to changes in control variables, control cryptocurrencies, the sampling frequency for high-frequency returns, and an extended post-introduction period.The crash-mitigating effect is more pronounced in periods of low liquidity and limited investor attention.