Improved Accuracy of Ethereum Exchange Rate Prediction Against USD Using CNN-LSTM Hybrid Model with Bayesian Optimization

Abstract

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the CNN-LSTM hybrid model in predicting the Ethereum exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) by comparing the performance of the model without optimization and the model with hyperparameter optimization using Bayesian Optimization. The dataset used is sourced from Yahoo Finance covering the period 2017-2023. The results show that the CNN-LSTM model with hyperparameter optimization consistently outperforms the model without optimization, with improved prediction accuracy shown through the RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² values. Hyperparameter optimization resulted in an optimal configuration with 166 filters, kernel size 5, 168 LSTM units, 91 dense units, learning rate 0.00114, and batch size 32. This research confirms the effectiveness of the CNN-LSTM hybrid approach in predicting crypto exchange rates, and demonstrates the importance of hyperparameter optimization in improving prediction accuracy.