Cryptocurrencies in the Face of Geopolitical Shocks and Investor Sentiment: Dynamic Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum During Periods of Global Uncertainty

Abstract

Our study analyzes the combined impact of geopolitical risks and investor sentiment on the major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, using monthly data from December 1, 2020, to the end of April 2025. Through a rigorous econometric approach-including unit root tests (Dickey-Fuller (1979-1981) and Perron (1998)), cointegration techniques (Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1990)), and error correction models (ECM and VECM)-we examined the long- and short-term dynamics between cryptocurrencies and three indices: investor sentiment, crypto market sentiment, and the composite geopolitical risk index. Our results confirm the existence of cointegration relationships between these crypto-assets and the indices, indicating structural interdependence during periods of global uncertainty. In the short term, fluctuations in investor sentiment and geopolitical risks significantly affect the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a rapid adjustment toward long-term equilibrium. Moreover, Ethereum appears to be slightly more sensitive to emotional and geopolitical shocks than Bitcoin. However, our study has certain limitations, notably the use of composite indices that may not capture all the qualitative nuances of the phenomena studied and the assumption of linearity in the modeled relationships. For future research, we suggest integrating nonlinear models and leveraging real-time sentiment data derived from artificial intelligence, as well as expanding the analysis to other segments of the crypto-asset market. Ultimately, our study enhances the understanding of exogenous factors influencing cryptocurrencies in an unstable global environment.