Who owns the gains from AI? Employee ownership, tokenization, and the distribution of income

Abstract

Emerging evidence suggests a declining labor share alongside rising markups, profits, and rents in parts of advanced economies, and artificial intelligence (AI) may intensify these dynamics by increasing the importance of capital and intangible assets. This paper examines whether broad employee ownership can help workers share in AI related surplus and mitigate distributional risks. First, it synthesizes competing perspectives on factor share measurement and the roles of technology and market structure, and it reviews evidence on employee ownership and profit sharing for wages, productivity, and firm performance. Second, it develops transparent simulation exercises in which AI adoption shifts surplus toward profits under alternative ownership trajectories. In a stylized high adoption scenario with no institutional change, the combined wage plus capital income accruing to workers falls by roughly 5% points of value added. Under expanded employee ownership, workers receive additional capital income on the order of 5% points, largely offsetting the decline in their overall claim on output. The paper concludes by assessing legal and financial architectures, including tokenization and institutional decentralized finance, that could reduce frictions in scaling employee ownership.