Predicting Cryptocurrency Prices with a Hybrid ARIMA and LSTM Model

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies have attracted significant attention from investors, regulators and the media since their emergence. In a world where digital advancements are increasingly included in everyday relations, studying the behaviour of cryptocurrencies and their impact on financial markets becomes a necessity. This paper introduces a comparative analysis towards a hybrid model combining classical and modern methods for predicting cryptocurrency prices. This study deals with everyday recordings of 10 cryptocurrencies that represent different technological innovations and use cases. Studying these cryptocurrencies can help understand volatility, volumes and price movements. We aim to develop a time series statistical model and to study the effectiveness of deep learning (DL) models, specifically long short-term memory (LSTM) model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, for predicting cryptocurrency prices accurately and forecasting stationary data. Combining ARIMA and LSTM, we managed to obtain a high value of R² for Binance Coin (BNB) cryptocurrency (0.936) with an average R² for all evaluated cryptocurrencies of 0.6555.