The impact of cryptocurrencies capitalization on banking deposits variability in the UAE: evidence from the NARDL approach

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to analyze the effect of cryptocurrency capitalization market development on bank deposits variability in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) spanning the period 2005M1–2020M4 using the novel nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL). Design/methodology/approach The study employs the NARDL recently developed by Shin et al . (2014) to estimate the long and short-run relationships between the variables rather than the widely known ARDL (Pesaran et al., 2001), which suffers from a complex structure in the estimation equation that usually includes lags and differences in both short and long terms. The implementation of NARDL required several proceedings after plotting the descriptive data, commencing with unit root tests, selection of lag length, estimating the long-and-short variables coefficients, heteroscedasticity test and Wald test for symmetries. Findings The long-run estimations of the positive and negative asymmetric coefficients indicate that cryptocurrencies capitalization has a negative impact on bank deposits in the UAE. Further, the short-run estimations coefficients exhibit that both significant positive and negative partial sum squares of cryptocurrencies decrease bank deposits. Research limitations/implications The study has applied to the UAE spanning the period 2005M1–2020M4 using the NARDL. Practical implications The short-run estimations coefficients exhibit that both significant positive and negative partial sum squares of cryptocurrencies decreases bank deposits, which means that the increase in the magnitude of cryptocurrencies capitalization stimulates depositors and speculators to adjust their portfolios towards contracting their deposits in banks to invest partially in cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, the decline in cryptocurrencies capitalization process spur depositors and speculators to reduce their deposits for purchasing cryptocurrencies at lower prices. Social implications The study infers that individuals and businesses are cautious when investing in cryptocurrencies, and they need more certainty and trust to include these types of assets in their portfolios. The fluctuation in cryptocurrencies capitalization prompts speculators to change their deposits according to the cryptocurrencies' prices. Originality/value This study explores the short-and long-run asymmetric impacts of cryptocurrencies capitalization development on bank deposits volatility in the UAE, based on a NARDL, for providing a manifest depiction of whether the cryptocurrencies industry might be a threat to conventional banking system performance in the potential future.