Analysis and assessment of the prospects for the development of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum in the context of global economic and political factors

Abstract

This study is a comprehensive analysis of the prospects for the development of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum in the context of global economic and political transformations, revealing the fundamental ambivalence of their nature through the dialectic of nominal capitalization and the lack of a stable value paradigm. Using a synthetic methodology combining econometric volatility analysis with an institutional approach, the paper reveals a systemic correlation of the market dynamics of the assets under study with shadow financial flows and speculative practices, demonstrating their permanent dependence on behavioral patterns of mass demand rather than objective macroeconomic factors. Special attention is paid to the process of increasing marginalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the system of legitimate economic transactions against the background of the observed convergence of user preferences towards stablecoins, which, combined with extreme price fluctuations (up to +50%), which are stochastic, finally negates their investment viability. The results obtained make it possible to predict with a high degree of reliability the systemic risks of correction by 50% or more due to the fundamental vulnerability of these crypto assets as speculative instruments that do not have price stabilization mechanisms in conditions of geo-economic turbulence.