CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG BITCOIN, ETHEREUM, AND THE STOCK AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS OF BRICS-T COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study investigates Granger-causality relationships between crypto-assets (Bitcoin and Ethereum) and traditional financial assets (stock indices and exchange rates) in BRICS-T countries over the 2016–2024 period. The findings highlight significant interlinkages: bidirectional causality exists between Bitcoin and Russia's stock market, and between Ethereum and both Brazil's stock market and the USD/INR exchange rate. Unidirectional causality is observed from Bitcoin to the stock markets of Brazil, India, and China, while the USD/TRY exchange rate influences Bitcoin. Similarly, Ethereum affects the stock markets of Russia, India, and South Africa, while the USD/TRY exchange rate also Granger-causes Ethereum. These results indicate a growing synchronization between crypto-assets and conventional financial markets. The presence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causalities emphasizes the increasing integration of global financial systems and highlights the importance for investors to consider cross-market interactions when making decisions. Crypto-assets are no longer isolated but are embedded in broader financial dynamics.