Risks of the Methodology for Forecasting the Price of Bitcoin and the Frequency of its Online Requests in the Digitalization of Economic Systems

Abstract

Research goals and objectives: to study the series of dynamics of the frequency of requests and the price of bitcoin under the conditions of taking into account the risks of using various forecasting methods. Subject of research: proof of importance of the role, statistical dependence and interdependence of the series of dynamics of the price of bitcoin and the frequency of its online requests. Research methods used: analytical methods, econometric models, nonlinear dynamics methods. Results of the research: The research grounded the approach and the forecasting procedure for the series of dynamics of the price of bitcoin and the frequency of its online requests, which in essence correspond to the basic principles of the implementation of the forecasting methodology, take into account the specifics of the formation of the frequency of online requests for bitcoin prices and the socio-economic meaning of its functioning. The practical value consists in determining that the minimum risks for the study of a time series dynamics of bitcoin price and frequency of requests for bitcoin price were demonstrated by the neural network methodology in comparison with the use of the ARIMA model and other methods of economic and mathematical modeling that proves the proposed methodology for determining the direction of the trend outside the study period.