Anticipate, automate, accelerate: A framework for blockchain in anticipatory action

Abstract

Anticipatory action (AA) refers to a series of interventions executed when a hazard presents imminent danger, as indicated by forecasts, early warnings, or pre-disaster risk analyses. It involves proactive measures undertaken by individuals or organizations before an expected disaster to lessen its impact on people, assets, and infrastructure likely to be affected. An increasing array of inter-governmental bodies, governments, United Nations entities, global non-governmental organizations, and Red Cross and Red Crescent movements, have been delving into and utilizing anticipatory action. It has been heralded globally by governments, donors and organizations alike as being a more protective, practical, and cost-effective method of disaster risk management. However, ongoing pilots by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and partners have exposed a significant level of friction between the capacity and speed of existing systems and stakeholders to execute these processes in a manner that is synchronized and timely enough to have the intended impact. This research investigates the potential of blockchain technology to streamline AA programs. It analyzes existing academic and non-academic sources (scholarly and gray literature) to develop a framework for identifying which blockchain applications can be most beneficial. By viewing smart contracts, data oracles, and decentralized finance (DeFi) as a toolbox, the framework examines how these technologies can be used to digitize and simplify AA processes. For AA practitioners, this approach offers a practical solution to potentially increase efficiency and speed within existing program structures. Additionally, it may have the secondary benefit of simplifying cash transfer delivery. Ultimately, this piece seeks to be more thought-provoking than prescriptive; as both areas of work (AA and blockchain technology) are continuously evolving, hopefully new cross-sectoral collaborations can ensue and provide more granular insights on what AA and blockchain synergies look like in practice.