Bitcoin Volatility: A Profitability-Focused Approach

Abstract

This study delved into the complex world of cryptocurrencies, analyzing their behavior, profitability, and volatility. Through a thorough and meticulous analysis of the 2021 – 2023 period, the volatile nature of these digital assets was revealed, where profits could be suddenly affected by external events. Bitcoin, two of the cryptocurrencies with the largest presence in the market, were the subject of a thorough analysis using sound statistical methodologies. Descriptive statistics were employed to characterize the overall behavior of cryptocurrencies, including measures of central tendency, dispersion, and distribution. Additionally, normality and stationarity tests were used to choose the best variant of the GARCH model, which was EGARCH, to estimate conditional volatility, future volatility and price profitability, allowing to identify patterns and dynamics in their variability. The results of the study revealed that cryptocurrencies, while presenting attractive potential returns, also carry a high degree of volatility. However, thanks to the in-depth analysis of the behavior of these assets we can identify opportune moments to make purchases, sales or strategic investments. The main goal of this study is to provide investors with the information needed to make strategic and informed decisions about their cryptocurrency investment