On the Time-Varying Efficiency of Cryptocurrency Markets

Abstract

This study examines whether the market efficiencies of major cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple) change over time based on the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) of Lo (2004). In particular, we measure the degree of market efficiency using Ito et al.'s (2014, 2016, 2017) generalized least squares-based time-varying model. The empirical results show that (1) the degree of market efficiency varies with time in cryptocurrency markets, (2) the market efficiency level of Bitcoin is higher than that of the other markets over most periods, and (3) the market efficiency of cryptocurrencies has evolved. We conclude that the results support the AMH for the established cryptocurrency market.