THE GENESIS OF THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO EVALUATING THE EFFICIENCY OF INNOVATIONS

Abstract

The article examines the evolution of theoretical and methodological approaches to evaluating the efficiency of innovative projects in relation to changes in the characteristics of innovations themselves. The relevance of the work is driven by the need to overcome the «innovation blindness» of traditional investment analysis methods under conditions of high uncertainty. Based on a retrospective analysis, a cause-and-effect relationship between the increasing complexity of the nature of innovations, changes in the economic environment, and the development of assessment tools is revealed. The author’s periodization of the genesis of approaches is proposed, synchronizing periods, development drivers, characteristics of innovations, dominant methods, and key concepts. Special attention is paid to promising directions for the development of methodology, including quantum computing, neuroeconomic modeling, and decentralized autonomous organizations, which is confirmed by relevant research in 2025–2026. The conclusion about the transition from static accounting models to dynamic, adaptive systems integrating real options theory, risk management, and digital technologies is substantiated.