Unraveling the Crypto Conundrum: how climate policy uncertainty shapes the cryptocurrency market

Abstract

Our study examines the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the volatility of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. Using monthly Climate Policy Uncertainty Index data from 2010 to 2024, we forecast daily cryptocurrency volatility with a GARCH-MIDAS model. The results show that higher climate policy uncertainty significantly increases volatility across all three cryptocurrencies over the full sample period. Out-of-sample analysis, which captures structural changes in energy consumption, reveals stronger effects for Bitcoin. Ethereum shows insignificant responses following its transition to a proof-of-stake mechanism, while Litecoin exhibits a significant positive relationship with uncertainty. Overall, climate policy uncertainty proves to be a strong predictor of cryptocurrency volatility, particularly for energy-intensive assets. The findings highlight the importance of policy-related information in shaping investor behaviour in crypto markets and provide useful implications for cryptocurrency issuers, retail investors and portfolio managers seeking to manage risk under changing regulatory and environmental conditions.