An Empirical Study into the Success of Listed Smart Contracts in\n Ethereum

Abstract

Since it takes time and effort to put a new product or service on the market,\none would like to predict whether it will be a success. In general this is not\npossible, but it is possible to follow best practices in order to maximise the\nchance of success. A smart contract is intended to encode business logic and is\ntherefore at the heart of every new business on the Ethereum blockchain. We\nhave investigated how to measure the success of smart contracts, and whether\nsuccessful smart contracts have characteristics that less successful smart\ncontracts lack. The appearance of a smart contract on a listing website such as\nEtherscan or StateoftheDapps is such a characteristic. In this paper, we\npresent a three-pronged analysis of the relative success of listed smart\ncontracts. First, we have used statistical analysis on the publicly visible\ntransaction history of the Ethereum blockchain to determine that listed\ncontracts are significantly more successful than their unlisted counterparts.\nNext, we have conducted a survey among more than 200 developers via an\nanonymous online survey about their experience with the listing process. A\nsignificant majority of respondents do not believe that listing a contract\nitself contributes to its success, but they believe that the extra attention\nthat is typically paid in tandem with the listing process does contribute.\nFinally, based on the respondents' answers, we have drafted 10 recommendations\nfor developers and validated them by submitting them to an international panel\nof experts.\n