Analyzing and Forecasting the Volatility of Ethereum based on Econometric Models

Abstract

The cryptocurrency market recently gained a lot of attention from investors. But, its volatility has been acting as a disincentive to investment. Volatility plays an important role in shaping market riskiness and investment behavior. We study the volatility of the Ethereum (ETH) cryptocurrency from the following perspectives. The first goal of this study is to identify risk-seeking behavior in the ETH cryptocurrency market. We examine this propensity by measuring the effect of the volatility of Ethereum on the total ETH assets. This investigation also takes the form of a case-study of an unexpected ETH fund-stolen event, DAO Hack, and the hard fork treatment. We also forecast a downward volatility trend in the near future based on Autoregressive models. This is the first study to analyze DAO Hack with empirical methods and marks the starting point for more rigorous models to predict the volatility of Ethereum.