Uncertainty Ahead? The 2024 US Elections and What is at Stake for EU-NATO Cooperation

Abstract

The 2024 United States’ (US) elections will have a significant impact on transatlantic security and the European Union (EU)-NATO relationship, which is crucial amid the erosion of the rules-based international order, Russia’s war against Ukraine and renewed conflict in the Middle East. While a re-election of Donald Trump could imply new risks for transatlantic security that can lead to a rupture in the EU-NATO relationship, Europeans should also not be disillusioned by Kamala Harris’ proposed foreign policy agenda and the focus on great power rivalry with China. No matter the outcome of the 2024 US presidential elections, the EU-NATO relationship needs to be future-proofed against domestic changes in allies and member states and especially in key contributing states to Euro-Atlantic security.