Determinants of Bitcoin Expected Returns

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the relationship between Bitcoin mining technology variables and Bitcoin returns, using a GARCH-M model. Additionally, we examine the predictive power of the mining technology variables on future Bitcoin returns. We find that mining difficulty and block size are inversely related to Bitcoin returns. Additionally, our findings signifying that the higher the block size the lower the Bitcoin price and consequently the lower the expected return. Second, our findings show that mining difficulty and block size are robust predictors of future Bitcoin returns.