Correlation-based Dynamics and Systemic Risk Measures in the Cryptocurrency Market

Abstract

Cryptocurrency is a rapid developing financial technology innovation which has attracted a large number of people around the world. The high-speed evolution, radical price fluctuations of cryptocurrency, and the inconsistent attitudes of monetary authorities in different countries have triggered panic and chain reactions towards the application and adoption of cryptocurrency and have caused public security related events. So far, a lot of researches and analyses have focused on just one or only a few number of cryptocurrencies, a comprehensive analysis of the whole cryptocurrency market and its systemic risk is still lacking. In this paper, we analyze the dynamics and systemic risk of the cryptocurrency market based on the public available price history. We first validated that the correlation matrix and asset tree are good tools to analyze the risk and stability of the cryptocurrency market. Furthermore, consistent with public perception, our quantitative analysis reveals that the cryptocurrency market is relatively fragile and unstable. Our work is the first to investigate the systemic risk of the whole cryptocurrency market and may shed some light on cryptocurrency related investment decision, regulation, and legislation.