MARKET VALUE ASSESSMENT OF BUSINESS PROJECTS IN THE DECENTRALIZED FINANCE SECTOR USING A RISK-ORIENTED APPROACH

Abstract

Abstract. The article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing the market value of business projects in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector using a risk-oriented approach. The relevance of the study is driven by the rapid expansion of decentralized financial ecosystems, the increasing capitalization of blockchain-based projects, and the high volatility and uncertainty inherent in DeFi markets. Traditional valuation methods are insufficiently adapted to the specific characteristics of decentralized financial platforms, including tokenomics, smart contract architecture, liquidity instability, governance decentralization, and heightened cyber and regulatory risks. The purpose of the study is to improve methodological approaches to assessing the market value of business projects in the DeFi sector through the integration of risk-oriented analytical tools into the valuation process. The study systematizes key risk factors affecting the market value of decentralized financial projects, including technological, financial, operational, market, liquidity, and regulatory risks. Particular attention is devoted to the influence of Total Value Locked (TVL), token volatility, protocol revenue stability, governance decentralization, and smart contract security on investment attractiveness and capitalization dynamics. The methodological basis of the research includes comparative analysis, systematization, risk-oriented valuation methods, scenario analysis, and elements of financial modeling. The study proposes an integrated approach to business project valuation that combines traditional discounted cash flow methods with DeFi-specific indicators and risk coefficients. A comparative assessment of valuation models used in traditional finance and decentralized finance ecosystems is conducted. The obtained results demonstrate that the implementation of a risk-oriented approach significantly improves the accuracy and adaptability of business project valuation in decentralized financial markets. The proposed methodological framework enables a more objective assessment of project sustainability, investment attractiveness, and market capitalization under conditions of high market turbulence. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of a comprehensive valuation model that incorporates decentralized governance parameters, blockchain ecosystem indicators, and dynamic risk factors into the market valuation process. The practical significance of the study is associated with the possibility of applying the proposed methodological approach by investors, financial analysts, venture funds, and DeFi platform developers in the process of evaluating investment decisions and managing financial risks within decentralized digital ecosystems. Keywords: valuation, decentralized finance, market value, risk-oriented approach, smart contract risk, business projects, digital assets.