Striking Gold in Software Repositories? An Econometric Study of Cryptocurrencies on GitHub

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies have a significant open source development presence on GitHub. This presents a unique opportunity to observe their related developer effort and software growth. Individual cryptocurrency prices are partly driven by attractiveness, and we hypothesize that high-quality, actively-developed software is one of its influences. Thus, we report on a study of a panel data set containing nearly a year of daily observations of development activity, popularity, and market capitalization for over two hundred open source cryptocurrencies. We find that open source project popularity is associated with higher market capitalization, though development activity and quality assurance practices are insignificant variables in our models. Using Granger causality tests, we find no compelling evidence for a dynamic relation between market capitalization and metrics such as daily stars, forks, watchers, commits, contributors, and lines of code changed.