Cryptocurrency Returns and Cryptocurrency Uncertainty: A Time-Frequency Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates how uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency affects cryptocurrency return (CR) by employing various wavelet techniques. To this end, we concentrate on the recently published cryptocurrency uncertainty index (UCRY) and the top eight cryptocurrencies by virtue of market capitalization for the period from December 30, 2013, until February 21, 2021. Our results show that the UCRY index strongly predicts CR. In particular, the UCRY index has a leading position in all the frequencies for all cryptocurrencies in our sample. Additionally, when the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and the volatility index are eliminated, the significant co-movement of UCRY-CR stays unchanged for short-, medium-, and long-term investment horizons. Thus, we conclude that the UCRY-CR relationships are both persistent and pervasive. Our study contributes to the literature on the relationships between cryptocurrency and market uncertainties as well as to investors who use uncertainty indices to design their investment strategies for their portfolios.