Support Vector Regression to Improve Ethereum Price Prediction for Trading Strategies

Abstract

Predicting erratic assets like Ethereum is difficult in the dynamic cryptocurrency market. This study uses an enhanced Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithm to create a daily price prediction model for Ethereum. Yahoo Finance provided the data, which was preprocessed to include missing value cleaning, normalization, and feature extraction of Moving Average (MA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The data was collected between August 4, 2019 and August 4, 2024. An ideal combination was obtained by parameter optimization with GridSearchCV: gamma scale, linear kernel, epsilon of 1, and C of 100. The model performed well, as evidenced by its R2 of 0.9985 and MSE of 2137.97. The model's reliability in predicting Ethereum's price movement patterns was validated via prediction graphs. A 30-day forecast indicated a stable trend, with prices slightly decreasing from $2921.31 on January 1, 2025, to $2919.83 on January 31, 2025. These results highlight the importance of data preprocessing and parameter optimization in enhancing SVR model performance.