Investor Experience Matters: Evidence from Generative Art Collections on the Blockchain

Abstract

Social goods are difficult to study because of selection bias, as available data typically focus on successful products. The non-fungible token (NFT) market offers a rare exception, as the blockchain records every launch, success, and failure. Using comprehensive NFT data from 2021–2024, we study preference-driven herding in primary markets. Launch outcomes are sharply bimodal, demand accelerates as sellouts approach, and early participation shocks persist for months. These patterns are consistent with preference-driven coordination rather than purely informational herding. We provide further evidence consistent with social-goods models, including substantial primary-market underpricing that is exploited by scalpers.