A Simple Macroeconomic Model of Bitcoin

Abstract

This working paper presents a simple model for the macroeconomic behavior of bitcoin based on the economic equation of exchange. According to this model, the value of bitcoin is determined largely by the willingness of bitcoin holders to save bitcoin and not by its transactional use. This model therefore predicts that increased use of bitcoin will not cause its value to rise, but that the value of bitcoin in terms of fiat currency will be almost solely determined by the willingness of bitcoin holders to pull bitcoin out of circulation. This model suggests that bitcoin will not fall victim to a liquidity trap as suggested by some economists.