The Wealth Flywheel of User-Owned Web3 Commerce: A Dynamic Macro Model

Abstract

The user-ownership model of Web3 commerce is widely viewed as a potential paradigm shift for the digital economy, yet its macroeconomic implications remain under-quantified within a unified, dynamic, and parameterized framework. This paper develops a tractable dynamic macroeconomic model of a “wealth flywheel” featuring two feedback channels. The income loop operates through profit-backed user rebates that raise income-equivalent purchasing capacity and stimulate consumption. The asset loop operates through consumption-driven profit and valuation growth, which expands household wealth under user ownership and feeds back into consumption via wealth effects. In a static setting, the paper derives a closed-form consumption multiplier and a corresponding stability condition. Aggregate consumption responds proportionally to an exogenous income impulse, and the system is stable if the combined strength of rebate-induced consumption feedback and wealth-effect amplification remains below unity. The static mechanism is then embedded into a global multi-period simulation framework with time-varying Web3 penetration, finite-horizon household deposit reallocation into consumption, and endogenous valuation paths. Using illustrative parameterizations, the paper simulates trajectories for global real GDP, equity market capitalization, household wealth, and inflation under neutral and aggressive adoption scenarios. The analysis further examines distributional implications when capitalization gains are directed toward user cohorts with higher marginal propensities to consume. The framework provides a parsimonious diagnostic for stability in mechanism design and contributes to macro-prudential discussions of self-reinforcing growth dynamics. Importantly, the analysis abstracts from collateralized borrowing, leverage, rehypothecation, and other financial intermediation channels. All amplification effects in the model arise from ownership structure and wealth effects rather than from credit-driven financial accelerators.