The Mechanisms Behind Web3 Meme Success: An Empirical Study of PUPS

Abstract

This study examines PUPS, a representative Bitcoin ecosystem project, to elucidate the success mechanisms of Web3 meme projects. We test three hypotheses: (H1) community sentiment and social media virality constitute the fundamental drivers of meme asset valuation; (H2) core participants accumulate positions at low prices and distribute at peak valuations; (H3) meme diffusion is predominantly driven by internal imitation, significantly outweighing external marketing effects. Applying event study methodology, social network analysis, and the Bass diffusion model to social media and on-chain data, our findings support all hypotheses, revealing a ”propagation–sentiment–trading” pathway. We identify a distinctive ”community fingerprint” comprising 348 original holders and 5,036 6-core addresses, characterizing them as both community stabilizers and hype catalysts. This pattern illustrates the paradox of ”economic recentralization” within technically decentralized systems. Paradoxically, the founder's public assertion that ”everything will eventually go to zero” evolved into a cultural ritual that reinforced community consensus. This study concludes by proposing a ”meme financialization” framework, offering novel perspectives for understanding ”Attention as Capital”, ”Consensus as Value”, and ”Narrative as Asset” in Web3 ecosystems.