Regime changes in Bitcoin GARCH volatility dynamics

Abstract

We test the presence of regime changes in the GARCH volatility dynamics of Bitcoin log–returns using Markov–switching GARCH (MSGARCH) models. We also compare MSGARCH to traditional single–regime GARCH specifications in predicting one–day ahead Value–at–Risk (VaR). The Bayesian approach is used to estimate the model parameters and to compute the VaR forecasts. We find strong evidence of regime changes in the GARCH process and show that MSGARCH models outperform single–regime specifications when predicting the VaR.